New Computer Model Provides Early Warning of Solar Flares

Watch, Warning, and Alert System in Place

A new computer model, developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), is providing early warning of solar flares, at least 15 hours before the associated shockwave. This early warning is similar to the bulletins put out by the NWS local forecast offices, and it gives communities time to prepare for the impact of a solar flare.

Early Warning System

The new computer model uses data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to detect solar flares. The SDO observes the Sun in multiple wavelengths of light, which allows scientists to track the development of solar flares. When the computer model detects a solar flare, it sends out an alert to the SWPC. The SWPC then issues a watch or warning, depending on the severity of the flare.

A watch means that a solar flare is possible, while a warning means that a solar flare is likely. The SWPC issues watches and warnings for three different levels of solar flares: minor, moderate, and major. Minor solar flares can cause minor disruptions to radio communications and power grids, while moderate solar flares can cause more significant disruptions. Major solar flares can cause widespread blackouts and damage to satellites.

Conclusion

The new computer model is a valuable tool for communities that are vulnerable to solar flares. The early warning provided by the model gives communities time to prepare for the impact of a solar flare, and it can help to mitigate the damage caused by these events.